Since cinemas reawakened in May 2021, business looked like it was gathering steam once again. The success of films like Spider-man: No Way Home, Top Gun: Maverick, No Time to Die and Minions: The Rise of Gru proved that all the age demographics had happily returned to the cinemas: young and old, male and female, families and partners – people were coming back to the big screen. This year especially had a particularly ripe May-July period which saw a multitude of hits like Elvis, Jurassic World Dominion, and Thor: Love and Thunder hang around at the top of the box office.
Yet despite this steady flow of cash injecting cinemas with a new lease of life, the worrying future was shuffling ever closer as a bone-dry August-October slate looked set to plunge the film chains into a financial eclipse. Films like Bullet Train, Don’t Worry Darling, The Woman King and Smile kept things ticking along weekend by weekend, but only Smile can be described as a profitable hit when looking at its budget. Each weekend one can find the top ten films around the world, but it is a downbeat experience to see that the bottom few films are barely able to make a million dollars apiece. Before, the pandemic, before the dark times, it was the norm for all the films in the top ten to be earning over a million dollars because studios offered so many types of films that could happily co-exist. From December 2021 to July 2022, the survival of the cinema has been dependent on a tentpole blockbuster coming every few weeks. No Way Home was such a mammoth hit it meant business survived the winter until The Batman was released in early March, and then Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness gave an adrenaline surge with its whopping $188 million opening in the US in May.
But since Thor: Love and Thunder’s mid-July release, the film industry as not had a full four- quadrant blockbuster until now, with Dwayne Johnson’s Black Adam earning a sizeable $140 million in its worldwide opening last weekend (despite its alleged $195 million budget). Black Adam is hardly going to set the business world alight, especially if it needs around $500 million to become profitable from the studio. Distributed by Warner Bros., which has constantly been roasted by the trade websites for its creative decisions, the film needs to be a hit for them following an inadequate year which saw Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore tank and DC Super League of Pets also struggle to turn a profit. If the studio cannot make money, it will make fewer films. If it makes fewer films, cinemas will not have the sustenance to survive. All Black Adam needs to do is act as the bare minimum as a lifeline for cinemas until Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is released on November 11th. Presently, chains like Cineworld have declared bankruptcy owing to the massively underwhelming ticket sales in recent months and the higher costs of electricity to power the massive auditoriums. Similarly, the world’s oldest film festival, the Edinburgh International Film Festival, has had to stop trading with the cinemas and has called in administrators after the rising costs and the 50% drop in ticket sales. Things are looking gloomy across the world too: the Chinese box office has declined since the government has limited the Hollywood films there, Russians are trying to legalise online torrenting, and the streaming companies are still trying to earn their wealth from home viewings. Whilst Black Adam is doing ‘enough’ providing it does not crash next weekend, most pundits are hungrily awaiting Wakanda Forever to properly give cinemas the boost. The first Black Panther made a phenomenal $1.3 billion in 2018, of which over $700 million came from the US alone. The anticipation is growing with keen interest as the tragic death of star Chadwick Boseman has changed the film from a standard Marvel sequel into a tissues-at-the-ready elegy for both an actor and a character. It is undeniable that the film is set to make enough money for Marvel producers to make their own vibranium suits, but the hope is that film plays out over a long time. Recent Marvel films have opened with big numbers but have then plummeted in their second weekends with drops of 65-68%, rarely a good sign.
to make enough money for Marvel producers to make their own vibranium suits, but the hope is that film plays out over a long time. Recent Marvel films have opened with big numbers but have then plummeted in their second weekends with drops of 65-68%, rarely a good sign. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever will give the film industry a massive boost. Via Marvel Studios. However, they often steady in their later weekends which suggests how frontloaded Marvel films are. Black Panther opened to $202 million in the US and finished with $700 million, indicating great word of mouth. If Wakanda Forever can mimic this, cinemas should flourish until December’s release of Avatar: The Way of Water, which will flourish internationally as audiences seek that transportive escapism from the coldness of winter, the high costs of living and the ongoing war in Ukraine.
But cinemas cannot thrive on one $200 million film at a time. Between Wakanda Forever and The Way of Water there are a handful of other offerings: Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans, Disney’s Strange World, Empire of Light and Puss in Boots: The Last Wish. All these films also need to be their own success stories to remind studios that the cinema can yield higher reward; Top Gun: Maverick’s record-breaking run exclusively in cinemas increased its demand for rentals and streaming sites. The cinema makes films more valuable, and so Black Adam and Wakanda Forever may keep the business operating for the winter, but we also need to get back to a place where all the films in the top ten are earning enough to survive. Support the blockbusters but pay attention to what else there is.
Written by Jacob Hando
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